Данная работа была подготовлена учеником к школьной конференции НОУ. В ней рассматриваются причины создания Исламского государства на Ближнем Востоке, проводится анализ социально-политической и геополитической ситуации в Ираке после американской агрессии 2003 года. Как итог, в работе выделяются факторы, которые способствуют распространению религиозного экстремизма в Ираке и Сирии, а также, факторы, которые препятствуют этому распространению.
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At the beginning of my work, I’ve considered the origin of the group ISIL and the reasons for its appearance. Then I’ve analyzed the socio-political and geo-political situation of the Sunni community in Iraq after the American aggression in 2003. And in the conclusion of my research, I identified the factors contributing to the spread of religious extremism in the northern parts of Syria and Iraq, and the factors that can prevent the spread of extremism.
First of all, it should be notedthat the appearance of IS could not be possible without American occupation of Iraq in the 2003-2011. American intervention has led to the destruction of Iraqi political institutions, including two great structures: the army and the Baath Party. In theseconditions,radical and extremist religious organizations became the most powerfulforces in Iraq. Moreover, in 2005 the coalition of Shiite religious parties received political power and support thanks to American occupiers. As a result, many Sunnis were fired and discriminated. A lot of innocent Iraqis were arrested and tortured.
In this way, the systematic marginalization of the Sunni community and the instability in the northern provinces of Iraq were the reasonsfor the growing influence of extremist and dzhihadisting organizations. And"Islamic State of Iraq andLevant" became the most powerful among them.Anotherfactor, contributing tojihadists activity, was the Civil Warin Syria. The USA and its NATO allies encouraged all the activities of Syrian opposition, includingalso the extremist groups. As for the conservativeGulf countries, they had the same position as the USA. It was a paradox, because the United States fought with Islamic radicalsin Iraq and helped them in Syria at the same time.
In February 2012,we heard about the ISIL’s activitiesfor the first time. After that in September-October 2013 ISIL managed to take control of Raqqa (the province in northern Syria) with rich oildeposits. It was a great financial success for this organization.
Besides, ISIL has money captured inMosul branch of the Iraqi CentralBank ($ 400 million) and takes taxes fromentrepreneurs at largeareas of Syria and Iraq. Thanks to this huge funding, thisextremist organization is very dangerous and uncontrollable because it is independent of foreign sponsors.
June 10, 2014 the armed groups of ISIL managed to capture Mosul, the largest city in northern Iraq. ISIL’s expansion caused a shock reaction in Iraq and in other Arab and Europeen countries. Nevertheless, the growing influence of this extremist organization wasn’t spontaneous. There were some important factors explaining the increase of military and political power of the extremists. And the main one is the weakness of the Iraqi army.
Despite the cruelty of ISIL’s militants we don’t observe the large protests against their domination in the occupied districts. The reason is that Jihadists create the atmosphere of terror. They used the ethnic cleansing and executions against their real opponents and civilians. The people have a simple choice: to support the ISIL or to be tortured and killed.
There is one opinion that the only real alternative to the ISIL is a Syrian army. But it requires the coordinated actions between the United States and Syria and the recognition of Bashar Assad’s government by Washington. At the same time countries of the anti-terrorist coalition, created in 2014 by USA, aren’t going to recognize Syria as an equal partner in the fight against ISIL.
The events in October and November 2014 showed that between the US on the one hand and Iran and Syria on the other hand, there is a minimal coordination of actions against the ISIL. The mutual mistrust between Washington and Tehran is so great, that both sides want to form their own anti-terrorist coalition: pro-American and Shiite.
Speaking about the position of other countries, it is necessary to note that the existence the powerful radical Islamist organization as ISIL is a serious threat to Saudi Arabia.
In conclusion, first of all I must note that the appearance of a powerful extremist organization as ISIL would not be possible without the destruction of Iraqi state system. In this sense, it can be said that the US were responsible for ISIL’s appearance.
Secondly, the emergence of ISIL has far-reaching geopolitical consequences. Activity of this organization caused the destruction of political borders in the Middle East.
Obviously, "the Islamic state" will not be destroyed by force. For effective fight against extremism we need a political settlement with a Sunni autonomy in the Northern Iraq or Iraq's division on religious grounds.
Thirdly, the ISIL’s activities in the short-term are beneficial for the United States and Iran. The United States need the instability in the Middle East to maintain its presence in this region. Iran is not afraid of ISIL, as the expansion of the organization in the Shiite provinces is impossible (it has no support there). The ISIL’s expansion towards the Iraqi Kurdistan will not be allowed by Americans. That’s why the main direction of ISIL’s expansion is Saudi Arabia, the main geopolitical opponent of Tehran. Moreover, thanks to the fight against ISIL Iran has an advantageous position in the Middle East.
In certain conditions the coordination and cooperation of the US and Iran against ISIL can be the beginning of partnership between these two countries.
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