Russian ruble: the history of UPS and downs

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The national currency of Russia for the 20-year history has seen a series of UPS and downs. But she never became a reserve, and the extension of the zone of influence of rouble , experts say. The modern Russian ruble, de jure, appeared four months after the collapse of the USSR in December 1991. However, in fact two years he was the so-called ersatz currency, while the main means of payment remained the Soviet ruble. Some time non-existent currency of the state was in circulation at the territory of all former Soviet republics, and this was a big mistake, says Director of Bank Institute of the Higher school of Economics Vasily Solodkov .

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"After the collapse of the Soviet Union, all former Soviet republics began to race to print rubles. This led to hyperinflation, the consequences of which have not been eradicated till now", - the expert explained in an interview with DW. Full decoupling of national currencies occurred in August 1993. He was then exchanged and the first Soviet Russian rubles for the new currency, which became the only legal tender on the territory of Russia.

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The boundaries of the ruble zone The zone of influence of the Russian ruble declined almost immediately after he became independent and full-fledged means of payment. The boundaries of the ruble zone equal to the borders of Russia in 1995. Also reminds Vasily Solodkov , in 1993 the idea of creating a "ruble zone of a new type" of Russia and Belarus. It didn't work out. Now a similar idea is sometimes expressed with regard to the Eurasian Union. Vasily Solodkov However, to talk about the creation of a "ruble zone of a new type" is not necessary, since each of the member countries of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia - have their own currency. However, the ambitions of the Russian leadership that seeks to expand the boundaries of the ruble zone beyond Russia, to some extent satisfied. The Russian ruble is the currency of the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In February 2012 the President of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Yevgeny Shevchuk suggested the possibility of introducing the Russian ruble as a parallel currency. Vasily Solodkov the prospects of expanding the boundaries of the ruble zone is skeptical about. "The economy is up, there is an outflow of capital, it is likely the banking crisis. In this position, create a new currency Union would be unwise," - said the expert in an interview with DW.

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The UPS and downs of the ruble Almost its entire history, the Russian rouble was seen in tandem with the dollar, and more recently with the Euro. Since the collapse of the USSR, and in connection with the hyperinflation that accompanied the Russian economy most of the 90-ies, the dollar against the ruble grew steadily and rapidly. For six and a half years (from August 1991 to December 1997) 1 United States dollar increased in value more than 100 - fold from 50 to 5960 Russian rubles. 1 January 1998 in Russia was the denomination of the national currency has lost three-zero, and the dollar was worth 5 rubles and 96 kopecks. But on 17 August 1998 were in default, and the ruble fell threefold. To stop the decline was only by the end of 2002 at around 31 rubles 86 kopecks per dollar. The next 6-year period was for the Russian currency the most successful in its history. The ruble strengthened, but, according to experts, it was connected not with the financial policy of the state, and with increasing oil prices.

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Without a chance of survival? Another idea of the Russian authorities, the conversations also go a long time, linked to the desire to discontinue the adjustment of the exchange rate. To allow the rouble to float freely, according to Vasily Solodkov , it was necessary when the country had positive balance of payments and oil prices were growing, i.e. before the crisis of 2008, but not now, in a period of stagnation. The situation is aggravated by a possible banking crisis discussed in connection with the revocation of licenses at once at the several credit organisations . The forecast, which gave Vasily Solodkov , also does not inspire optimism. According to experts, in the coming years will continue the devaluation of the Russian ruble. On average, it can be 10 percent a year, he says. That the Russian ruble will fall, A. nechshadin agree."My feeling is that soon there will be a certain devaluation of the ruble, and quite quickly," - concluded the Neshchadin .

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