Министерство общего и профессионального образования

Свердловской области

Управление образования Администрации города Нижний Тагил

МБОУ гимназия № 18

Направление «Иностранные языки»

Образовательная область «Английский язык»

МИСТИЧЕСКАЯ ВЛАСТЬ ДОЛЛАРА

THE MYSTICAL POWER OF THE DOLLAR

Исполнитель: Иванова Юлия

учащаяся 9 Г класса

Научный руководитель:

Жидкова Екатерина Вадимовна,

МБОУ гимназия  № 18, учитель

английского языка

Внешний рецензент

Ершова Нина Александровна,

учитель английского языка

I квалификационной категории

МБОУ СОШ 75/ 42:

Нижний Тагил

2014

Table of Contents

Introduction        

Сhapter1. What is mystical about the dollar?        

1.1 History of the dollar and its etymology.        

1.2 Nominal values and design of banknotes.        

1.3 The history of $ sign.        

1.4 Mystical signs and symbols.        

1.5.The international roles of the dollar?        

Сhapter 2. What is the future of the U.S. dollar?        

2.1 Analysis of questionnaires.        

2.2 Prospects of the dollar as the world reserve currency.        

2.3 Astrology and the future of the dollar.        

Conclusion        

Reference list        

Appendix 1.  Free float banknotes.        

Appendix 2.  Symbols        

Appendix 3..International accumulating in foreign exchange reserves.        

Appendix 4.Questionnaire.        

Appendix 5.Results of the questionnaire.        

Appendix 6 Economists        

Introduction

What do people use as money? In studying national economies we usually do not worry about this question very much, assuming that governments are able to create fiat monies and enforce their acceptance. Money, the classical economists argued, serves three functions: it is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. International money does the same: it is used to settle international payments, it is used to fix prices, it is held as a liquid asset for international transactions.

The United States dollar is the official currency of the United States and its overseas territories. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents. The U.S. dollar is the fiat currency most used in international transactions and is one of the world's most dominant reserve currencies. Several countries use it as their official currency, and in many others it is the de facto currency. It is also used as the sole currency in two British Overseas Territories: the British Virgin Islands and the Turks and Caicos islands.

We live in the era of economic uncertainty. Currency has become an integral part of the society. Financial relations are impossible without it. So modern man must know and understand the meaning of that concept to continue to participate in international relations.

Rumors about the dollar default are heard everywhere. All economists of the world are asking:"Will the dollar fall?"The modern world economy is unstable, so the question arose: "What is the future of currencies?"

America has a long history from its discovery by Christopher Columbus. Since then, the dollar has been living on earth. People must know and remember the past not to walk twice into the same water in the future.

Our research work is actual due to the growing interest of people towards the U.S. economy and a large number of negative predictions about the US dollar.

The object of the research is dollar as global currency.

The subject of the research is the peculiar features of dollar that allowed it survive for such a long time.

The aim of our research is to make some predictions about the future of the dollar.

To achieve the aim we have to fulfill the following tasks:

• to study the history of the U.S. currency;
• to define the dollar’s nominal values and its design;
• to distinguish the mystical symbols associated with 1 dollar banknote;
• to find out the reasons of the dollar’s influence on the world’s economy;
• to conduct a questionnaire to find out people’s opinion about dollar’s future;
• to give an overview of  opinions of leading international economists;
• to refer to the opinion of astrologists about the dollar’s future.

The hypothesis of our research work. We suppose that the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency will rapidly move down and  it won’t be the global currency in the future.

While doing our research work we used the following methods: study of monographic publications and articles, study the internet sources, classification, generalization, analysis of questionnaires and opinion of economists and statistics.

The work consists of an introduction, two chapters, conclusion, list of references and appendixes.

The first chapter is devoted to the history and development of the dollar as the main national reserve currency. We bring into focus the role of mystical symbols and signs and emphasize the status of the international role of the dollar.

In the second chapter we attracted the reader’s attention on the different opinions about the future of the dollar. We conducted a questionnaire among the students of our gymnasium and their parents.  We also paid attention the opinion of specialists: economists and astrologists..

In the appendix there is an illustrated table of design of banknotes, graphics, diagrams and some pictures to illustrate the research work.

Сhapter1. What is mystical about the dollar?

Some people are saying that the dollar's days are numbered. Maybe so. Let's look at the dollar's long history, and see how we got to where we are today.

1.1 History of the dollar and its etymology

The "dollar" originated in the city of Joachimsthal in Bavaria (now Germany). Beginning in 1518, Count Hieronymus Schlick of Bohemia began minting coins known as Joachimstalers (from German thal, or nowadays usually Tal, "valley", comparative with "dale" in English), named for Joachimstal, the valley where the silver was mined. Joachimstaler was later shortened to the German Taler, a word that eventually found its way into Swedish as daler, Dutch as daalder, Ethiopian as talari, Italian as tallero, and English as dollar.

The coins minted at Joachimsthal soon lent their name to other coins of similar size and weight from other places. One such example, was a Dutch coin depicting a lion, hence its Dutch name leeuwendaler (English liondaler).

The leeuwendaler was authorized to contain 427.16 grains of 750 fine silver and passed locally for between 36 to 42 stuivers. It was lighter than the large denomination coins then in circulation, thus it was more advantageous for a Dutch merchant to pay a foreign debt in leeuwendalers and it became the coin of choice for foreign trade.

The leeuwendaler was popular in the Dutch East Indies and in the Dutch New Netherland Colony (New York), and circulated throughout the Thirteen Colonies during the 17th and early 18th centuries. It was also popular throughout Eastern Europe where it lead to the current Romanian and Moldovan currency being called leu(literally "lion").

Among the English-speaking community the coin came popularly to be known as lion dollar – and is in fact the origin of the name Dollar. The modern American-English pronunciation of dollar is still remarkably close to the 17th-century Dutch pronunciation of daler.

By analogy with this lion dollar, Spanish pesos – with the same weight and shape as the lion dollar – came to be known as Spanish dollars. By the mid-18th century, the lion dollar had been replaced by Spanish dollar. Eventually dollar became the name of the first official American currency.

Eventually, governments throughout Europe adopted this standardized coin for commerce. The silver came from many locations, and many different governments produced the coins, but they were all basically identical. Europe was on a dollar standard.

The Spanish silver dollar emerged from the rich mines of Mexico. The Spanish dollar became the most common coin in the American colonies.

During this time, there were many experiments with floating, paper currencies. The U.S. colonies had a wave of hyperinflation in the 1740s, and again in the 1780s. There was another round of currency devaluation during the Civil War. However, after the smoke cleared, they returned again and again to the stable gold dollar.

In 1792, after the American Revolution, Congress adopted the European "thaler" or dollar as the standard in the new United States. They were following standard European  Practice.

Britain went to a "monometallic" (gold-only) system in 1816. The United States effectively put gold on top in 1834.

Thus, we see that the "dollar" has a history that dates back to the early 16th century and encompassed all of Europe. The "dollar" was an unchanging unit of account for 415 years, until 1933.

The first permanent devaluation of the U.S. dollar took place during the Great Depression. In 1933, the dollar's value was reduced to $35/oz., or 1/35th oz. of gold (0.8887 grams).

The monetary system of United States was changed in 1963, when the concept of fiat money was introduced in the economy. According to the fiat system, the currency was not backed by storage of resources such as gold and silver. The non-fiat money was bought back by the treasury department in 1868. The new bank notes that were distributed on the basis of fiat money are termed to be a legal tender by the treasury department.

The introduction of floating currencies in 1971 was something of an accident. It was an unplanned consequence of Richard Nixon's "easy money" policies of 1970. It was supposed to be temporary. However, it was one of the biggest changes to Western civilization in the past 500 years. The dollar soon lost about 90% of its value in the 1980s and 1990s. This period of crude stability has been called the "Great Moderation" by some economists [Mayer 1980: 4].

This "Great Moderation" period has apparently ended. We are now in a new period of currency deterioration.

Today even after many changes, United States legal tender money has proved to be a success and is circulated, monitored and distributed by the treasury department. The bank notes are known as green backs due to their distinctive green color. There are 5 denominations of the notes that range from $1 to $100. The current fiat system has become so successful and wide-spread, that it is used as a measurement of currency by many nations to establish value of their own currency in international market [History of American money, electronic resource].

Since the dollar has a long history and was used by people of different nations, it got different nicknames. People of all times respected their currency and the nicknames reflect either activity or peculiarities of their language.

The colloquialism "buck" is often used to refer to dollars of various nations, including the U.S. dollar. This term, dating to the 18th century, may have originated with the colonial leather trade. It may also have originated from a poker term. Other well-known names of the dollar as a whole in denominations include "greenmail", "green" and "dead presidents" (the last because deceased presidents are pictured on most bills).

In Panama, the equivalent of buck is "palo" (literally "stick"). Also, the Panamanian balboa is directly tied to the U.S. dollar, and USDs are frequently used in place of the minted Panamanian currency.

In Ecuador, the dollar is referred to as "plata" (literally "silver").

In Peru, a nickname for the U.S. dollar is "coco", which is a pet name for Jorge ("George" in Spanish), a reference to the portrait of George Washington on the $1 note.

Puerto Ricans, both living in Puerto Rico and in the United States, may refer to the dollar as "peso".

In some places in Mexico, prices in U.S. dollars are referred to as "en americano" ("in American"), or en oro ("in gold") with the word "peso".

Cubans call the U.S. dollar "fula". Loosely translated from Cuban jargon meaning bad. Possession of American money was penalized before the mid-1990s, hence the nickname.

1.2 Nominal values and design of banknotes

It is widely known that a dollar banknote has a green colour. In 1869, the U.S. Treasury Department signed a contract with a company from Philadelphia Messers J. M. & Cox for the production of paper money with special water marks. Approximately in the same period the Treasury was first print dollars with green paint. The reason of innovation was the appearance of photo. It was old-styled bills, made with black paint, became very easy to counterfeit. In this regard, an existing green dye has been used in large volumes. Until 1929, the manufacture of dollars used different colors. Green solid colour appeared only in 1929. Explanation of this fact is as follows: green dyes were cheap enough, green was relatively unaffected by external influences and psychologically aroused confidence in money and sense of optimism. In recent years, the dollar bills newly acquired new colors - shades of yellow and pink.

All federal U.S. banknotes issued since 1861 are still legal tender. Since 1971, the provision of U.S. dollar by gold reserves has been canceled. In free circulation banknotes are issued the following values.

Coin’s nominal values:

• 1 cent (penny);

• 5 cents (nickel);

• 10 cents (dime);

• 25 cents (quarter);

• 50 cents (half);

• 1 dollar.

Every day in the United States about 35 million banknotes of various denominations are issued, totaling approximately $ 635 million, 95% of the banknotes are printed each year used to replace worn-out money. In 2005, the manufacturing cost of a single note was about 5.7 cents.

The basic design of the majority of dollar bills was approved in 1928. Portraits of public U.S. figures are depicted on banknotes and on the other side of bills images illustrate the history of the United States (appendix 1).

1.3 The history of $ sign

It is generally known that the symbol $ is not the "dollar sign" but rather it used to be the "Peso sign" and is the symbol of every currency named Peso. When the dollar was created they adopted the symbol of the world's currency, which at the time was the Mexican Peso (due to its status as the most important colony of Spain). Its usage goes well before the stablishment of the United States.

The symbol $, usually written before the numerical amount, is used for the U.S. dollar (as well as for many other currencies). The sign was the result of a late 18th-century evolution of the scribal abbreviation "ps" for the peso. The p and the s eventually came to be written over each other giving rise to $.

Another popular explanation is that it comes from the Pillars of Hercules on the Spanish Coat of arms on the Spanish dollars that were minted in the New World mints in Mexico City, Potosí, Bolivia, and in Lima, Peru. These Pillars of Hercules on the silver Spanish dollar coins take the form of two vertical bars (||) and a swinging cloth band in the shape of an "S".

Yet another fictional explanation suggests that the dollar sign was formed from the capital letters U and S written or printed one on top of the other. This theory, popularized by novelist Ayn Rand in Atlas Shrugged, does not consider the fact that the symbol was already in use before the formation of the United States.

The symbol $ has a long history. It appeared long before the dollar was adopted. And even nowadays it remains the symbol of stability.

1.4 Mystical signs and symbols

It’s a great story of what the symbols on the dollar bill stand for. Do you know what the pyramid stands for? Do you know why the eagle was chosen as the national symbol?

On the rear of the One Dollar bill, there are two circles (appendix 2). Together, they comprise the Great Seal of the United States. The First Continental Congress requested that Benjamin Franklin and a group of men come up with a Seal.  It took the men four years to accomplish this task and another two years for approval.

If you look at the left-hand circle, there is a Pyramid. If you look closely, the face is lit, and the western side is dark – the USA country was just beginning. The west was yet to be explored.  The Pyramid is uncapped, again signifying that they were not even close to being a finished nation.  Inside the Capstone is the all-seeing eye, an ancient symbol for divinity.  It was Franklin’s belief that one man couldn’t do it alone, but a group of men, with the help of God, could do anything.

In 1782, the all-seeing eye was adopted as part of the symbolism on the reverse side of the Great Seal of the United States. It was first suggested as an element of the Great Seal by the first of three design committees in 1776 and is thought to be the suggestion of the artistic consultant, Pierre Eugene du Simitiere.

On the seal, the Eye is surrounded by the words Annuit Cœptis, meaning "He approves (or has approved) our undertakings", and Novus Ordo Seclorum, meaning "New Order of the Ages". The Eye is situated above an unfinished pyramid with thirteen steps, representing the original thirteen states and the future growth of the country. The lowest level of the pyramid shows the year 1776 in Roman numerals. The combined implication is that the Eye, or God, favors the prosperity of the United States.

Today, the all-seeing eye is usually associated with Freemasonry. The Eye first appeared as part of the standard iconography of the Freemasons in 1797, with the publication of Thomas Smith Webb's Freemasons Monitor. Here, it represents the all-seeing eye of God and is a reminder that a Mason's thoughts and deeds are always observed by God (who is referred to in Masonry as the Great Architect of the Universe). Typically, the Masonic Eye of Providence has a semi-circular glory below the eye. Sometimes the Eye is enclosed by a triangle.

However, common Masonic use of the Eye dates to 14 years after the creation of the Great Seal. Furthermore, among the members of the various design committees for the Great Seal, only Benjamin Franklin was a Mason (and his ideas for the seal were not adopted). Indeed, many Masonic organizations have explicitly denied any connection to the creation of the Seal [David Barrett, electronic resource].

"In God we trust" was adopted as the official motto of the United States in 1956 as an alternative or replacement to the unofficial motto of E pluribus unum, which was adopted when the Great Seal of the United States was created and adopted in 1782.

"In God we trust" first appeared on U.S. coins in 1864 and has appeared on paper currency since 1957. Some secularists object to its use.

The final form of the motto and its placement upon currency were forged entirely within this crucible of national turmoil (lasting from 1861 to 1865). The Reverend M. R. Watkinson, in a letter dated November 13, 1861, petitioned the Treasury Department to add a statement recognising "Almighty God in some form in our coins." At least part of the motivation was to declare that God was on the Union side of the Civil War. 

In 1956, the nation was at a particularly tense time in the Cold War, and the United States wanted to distinguish itself from the Soviet Union, which promoted state atheism. As a result, the 84th Congress passed a joint resolution "declaring IN GOD WE TRUST the national motto of the United States." The law was signed by President Eisenhower on July 30, 1956, and the motto was progressively added to paper money over a period from 1957 to 1966 [Scott A. Merriman 2001: 281]

 If you look at the right-hand circle, and check it carefully, you will learn that it is on every National Cemetery in the United States.

The Bald Eagle was selected as a symbol for two reasons:   Firstly, the eagle is not afraid of a storm; he is strong, and he is smart enough to soar above it.   Secondly, he wears no material crown – we had just broken away from the King of England.

Also, notice the shield is unsupported which meant that the country can now stand on its own.

At the top of that shield there is a white bar signifying congress, a unifying factor.  In the Eagle’s beak you will read, ‘ E PLURIBUS UNUM’ meaning, ‘from many – one.’

Above the Eagle, there are the thirteen stars, representing the thirteen original colonies, and any clouds of misunderstanding rolling away.  

An (untrue) old-fashioned belief says that the number 13 is an unlucky number. This is almost a worldwide belief. You will almost never see a room numbered 13, or any hotels or motels with a 13th floor, but consider this:

America, which relies on God (not a number) to direct and lead, boldly chose:

13 original colonies,

13 signers of the Declaration of Independence,

13 stripes on our flag,

13 steps on the pyramid,

13 letters in ‘AnnuitCoeptis’,

13 letters in ‘E Pluribus Unum,’

13 stars above the eagle,

13 bars on that shield,

In several cultures the number 13 is powerful and represents the beginning. May be the bill designers added all the mystic symbols on the dollar bill to make the currency a formidable one.

Some people believe that all these mystical signs mentioned above help the dollar to remain the main reserve currency all over the world. But there are some other reasons.

1.5. The international roles of the dollar

The dollar is used as a major form of cash currency, and is the main currency for exchange rate pegs and for invoicing foreign transactions.

Due to many reasons, the dollar is the most prominent currency in the world. It plays a central role in international trade and finance both as a store of value and as a medium of exchange. Here are some of the reasons.

• Many countries maintain an exchange rate regime that anchors the value of their home currency to that of the dollar.
• Dollar holdings make up a large share of official foreign exchange reserves, the foreign currency deposits and bonds maintained by central banks and monetary authorities.
• In international trade, the dollar is widely used for invoicing and settling import and export transactions around the world.

• The dollar is a leading transaction currency in the foreign exchange markets. With an 86% share in the volume of international trade and financial markets – more than twice the share of the euro – the dollar continues to dominate these markets (appendix3). Turnover volumes in the foreign exchange markets have more than doubled in the past decade, implying large numbers of transactions measured in reference to, or involving, the dollar.

• Another contributor to the dollar’s leading role in foreign exchange transactions is the currency’s widespread use in the invoicing of international trade. The use of the dollar in export invoicing is substantial and far exceeds what could be explained by country exports to the US. Some of the countries with strong dollar use are in proximity to the US (Canada, Mexico). Latin American, and Asia, or are commodity - intensive exporters.

The dollar also serves as a prominent currency in the international debt markets. One measure is the share of all outstanding debt securities, issued anywhere in the world, denominated in dollars. According to this measure, the dollar’s share stands at approximately 39%, down only slightly from a high of 42% in 1999.

The international role of the dollar remains substantial a decade after the introduction of the euro, and despite changes in the value of the dollar and the financial turmoil that began in 2007. Factors that may have contributed to this continuing strength include inertia in currency use in certain transactions. That is, the dollar’s established and deep role in international markets may make it difficult for users to shift to a less entrenched currency – this is the logic of network externalities.

Once a currency is well established, it is not easily displaced from this role. Everyone uses the dollar because everyone else is using the dollar. A second factor is less history-dependent. Users tend to favor the currency of countries that have large economies and relatively stable rates of output and employment growth, as well as low and stable inflation. Finally, users may be predisposed to choose the dollar because it is linked to their own currency through their exchange rate regime and because key commodities are priced in dollars.

As the size and structure of the global economy change, international currency use may change as well. Changes to the global economy could have major implications for the international transmission of shocks, the value of the dollar, and welfare across economies. Accordingly, it is important to monitor use of the dollar in international economic activity and to understand the possible causes and consequences of the dollar’s international role. Ongoing vigilance in policy is therefore warranted [Dollar’ international roles, electronic resource].

Сhapter 2. What is the future of the U.S. dollar?

2.1 Analysis of questionnaires.

Though some specialists say that a dollar won’t live long, we think that dollar is worth our attention as the most unique currency in the history of the world’s economy. It has been the international reserve currency for a very long time.

There are two contrasting views about the dollar in the world. Some believe that the dollar will inevitably fall; others believe that the dollar is still strong.

As far as there are two opposite opinions of the dollar’s future we tried to find out what is the opinion of people in our city. We conducted the questionnaires among pupils of the 9th classes of our gymnasium in Nizhny Tagil and their parents (appendix 4).  400 people took part in the survey.

We found out that all respondents know what the dollar is, and use cash money for traveling (appendix 5).

We stated the fact that 15% of respondents keep their savings in foreign currency, 15% abstained, 70% claim that they should keep their money only in the currency of their own country;

However 30% of respondents believe that the dollar will retain its positions, 70% suppose that the collapse of the dollar is likely to happen in 2014.

More than that all respondents agreed that a reserve currency is required for all countries and for trade turnover and tourism.

So we may make a conclusion that citizens of Nizhny Tagil happen to have experience to use dollar as a reserve currency when travelling abroad and keeping their money in banks. But ordinary people are dependent on the living conditions. Instability in the economics frightens people and this fact gives rise to a great number of rumors about unsuccessful dollar position today. That is why there is a common belief that dollar is losing its positions and there is no positive prediction about its future,

But we think that only specialists in economy can judge about the situation with the dollar.

2.2 Prospects of the dollar as the world reserve currency.

Economists are aware of the global economy and they can give us accurate forecasts. Various media sources have been used to analyze the future of the dollar.

There is positive opinions about the situation with dollar ant can be supported by the following facts:

• Currently, most of the total volume of foreign exchange transactions is made in one intermediate currency in the U.S. dollars.
• The largest economy in the world is the economy of the United States. This country has the world's largest gross of domestic product. U.S. GDP in 2009 amounted to 14.26 trillion dollars. That’s why U.S. dollar is so strong. The Dollar is a Global Currency.
• After World War II, the world's developed countries created a plan in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to fix the rate of exchange for all foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar. Called the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar was backed by its value in gold. By the early 1970's, to curb inflation, countries began demanding gold for their dollars. Rather than allow Fort Knox to be depleted of all gold reserves, President Nixon untied the dollar to gold. However, by that time, the dollar had become the world's dominant reserve currency.
• The Dollar Is the New Gold Standard.

In essence the dollar is like the Gold Standard. Most global contracts, especially those for oil, are denominated in dollars. Many large countries, such as China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore, peg their currency to the dollar. When the dollar weakens, so do the profits of their exporters. These countries also hold large deposits of U.S. Treasuries, and could conceivably sell their holdings and cause a dollar collapse. However, it is not in their best interest.

• The Dollar Has Always Recovered from Prior Declines:

The dollar declined during the 1970s, the early 80s and in 1991-1993. During these declines, there were also forecasts of a dollar collapse. Many countries discussed removing their currencies' pegs to the dollar. However, there was no real substitution of a global currency, so a dollar collapse did not happen.

One of the most controversial and at the same time the most successful investors in the world, multibillionaire George Soros (appendix 6) during the international conference "Bretton WoodsII», convened at his initiative, loudly declared that:"The U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency(MRI) has outlived its years and its circulation in the world is reduced. "According to George Soros: "We need to look for a replacement for the dollar in global financial markets. Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, the U.S. dollar as made a world currency, is outdated and needs to be replaced."

However there are some other opinions.

 Nobel laureate Nouriel Roubini (appendix 6) predicts that in the coming years, weakening of the dollar will be because of the monstrous U.S. budget deficit and the record Washington’s national debt. In the medium term should expect a dollar collapse by 15-20%, especially to the currencies commodity-dependent countries of the third world, says N. Roubini, who predicted the last global crisis.

Marc Faber (appendix 6), publisher of «The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report», predicts total dollar depreciation in the next ten years. He pointed out that the USA needs a permanent job for the Fedprinting press to finance the huge budget deficit.

Authoritative publication "Financial Times" said that the dollar as MRI created a "dangerous imbalance" in the world and the central banks of other countries having their gold reserves in dollars and a significant share of U.S. securities, became a kind of hostages of the Washington administration.
U.S. national debt is growing exponentially. Over the past six years it has grown by almost half - from $ 8 billion in 2005 to more than $ 11 billion this year.

But can the world give it up now? No, there is just not an alternative to the dollar today.

N. Roubini is sure: "None of the currently used as MRI-euro, yen, Swiss franc and pound sterling will not be able to replace the U.S. currency in the next, at least 20 years.» Eurozone is experiencing hard times; Japan, the UK and Switzerland have not so powerful economy, as the USA, to ensure the sustainability of the global currency.

Michael Wechsler from "Maple Leaf Capital" observes:"Over the past five hundred years status of a world currency was worn by many- the same U.S. dollar replaced the broken-down British pound sterling." And history teaches us that change of global currency happens about once every150 years, that is, the dollar, according to calculations M. Wechsler, still has 30-40 years.

None of the countries that are major holders of U.S. debt obligations- and among them China, Japan, Russia and European countries-are not interested int he dollar ceased to be a reserve currency, as it is they devalue their currency reserves automatically.

The Washington administration also voluntarily steps down the dollar's reserve currency function. Due to this, it has the ability to cover a significant portion of payments deficit and maintain the competitiveness of its corporations and companies in the international arena.

Having analyzed the opinions of well-known economists we agree to the fact  the dollar now is much weaker than it was before and it is losing its power. But never – the- less the dollar is strong enough to remain the world’s reserve currency for at least 20 or 30 years.

People say “people assume, and God disposes”. It is a common belief when you don’t know what to do, turn to astrology. Looking back we can’t but state the fact that most of astrologists’ predictions had come true. So it is interesting to study their opinion on the question  of the dollar’s future.

2.3 Astrology and the future of the dollar.

The attempt to understand the American economy lies in the two major institutions - the Federal Reserve and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). These are very sensitive charts, which consistently reflect the ups and downs of the US economy.

From 2012 to 2013 Neptune was conjoining the NYSE Descendant, opposing the 1929 transit, and this is a strong indication that regulatory mechanisms will not be able to control trades and traders in the near future. The Lehman demise and subsequent economic crisis is reflected in this chart by the progressed conjunction of Venus and Mars, which squared radix Neptune early on in the decade making an exact square to progressed Neptune in 2007 as the subprime market fraud was finally exposed. Quite obviously the NYSE was operating on a bubble at this time.

The Federal Reserve was created under extremely secretive circumstances in 1913, when a small group of bankers and politicians met on Jekyll Island to discuss a new policy of monetary reform. What in fact happened was that government wealth was placed in the hands of a rich elite, where it still is. The Fed was to be a bank controlled by Congress but it ended up being a corporation owned by the big banks. This can be clearly seen in the lamentable horoscope for the founding of the Federal Reserve:

The financial crash in 2008 was based on toxic home loans and the sale of derivatives from these loans classed by leading US rating agencies as AAA, which were in fact junk. The progressed US Descendant had conjoined the US Moon at 27 Aquarius in 2007, and with the Moon ruling the 8th house of the US chart, this put the focus on the indebtedness of the US people.

It is interesting to note that the US progressed Mars went retrograde around about 2006; in fact it has been hovering at 18 degrees Libra for years, and the station of Mars at this point represents the military upheaval in the USA since 9/11, its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the new phase of US cutbacks and withdrawal that are kicking in with Obama’s reforms. This is a time of historic military reassessment.

“Now that transiting Pluto has made its final transit to USA’s Jupiter, completely eliminating the natural optimism inherent in America, the short-term prognosis for the country will again improve and there will be a resurgence of faith. A great deal of money has been printed and pumped in to the American economy (in strong contrast to the policy of austerity in Europe), and this has put America back on its feet. The economy lost 3.1 million jobs between January 2009 and June 2009 but has since gained 1.2 million jobs. (Note 8) This will lead to a strong dose of renewed optimism – and very likely a strong dose of inflation too – when Jupiter leaves Taurus in June 2012 and squares Neptune in Pisces. This “irrational optimism” will probably be quite enough to get Obama re-elected, even as Saturn enters Scorpio in October, to make three long trines to Neptune and sex tiles to Pluto. Then, through fear of inflation, banks are very likely to raise interest rates, and America is likely to get its own dose of austerity until Saturn leaves Scorpio in September 2015.’[Duncan, electronic resource] 

It is in 2014 and 2015 that the last of a series of Pluto/Uranus squares takes place, with Uranus opposing the US Saturn in Libra – the checks and balances of Congress – whilst Pluto opposes the Sun in Cancer – the President. Clearly the tensions in the Sun/Saturn square in the US chart, representing as it does the creative conflict between the President and the Congress, will reach an extreme at this time. The kind of deadlock that has been experienced in the current presidential period will pale in comparison to the next period.

Conclusion

In the context of globalization today, the economic potential of the United States remains the main fundamental factor determining the exceptional position of the dollar in the global monetary system. World economic leadership of the USA and their superiority over the countries of Euro Monetary Union determines the prevailing of the dollar over the euro during the competition between two major world currencies.

People do not believe so much, that the dollar will maintain the position of the main currency, but it is only the opinion of ordinary citizens who are not great experts in economics. We analyzed the opinions of economists and concluded that the dollar has about 30 years for remaining the world's reserve currency. After that the dollar will become just the national currency of the United States of America. So our hypothesis is proved.

Yet there is no adequate currency to replace the dollar now. No one has such strong economy as the United States. Though if we start looking for some other currencies, there is  Euro that has the greatest potential to replace the dollar as the Global currency. It may seem strange enough but there is one more opponent. China has a large domestic production and its currency has enough strength to claim the status of a global currency in the future. Initially the Chinese yuan can replace the U.S. dollar in the Asia-Pacific region, and maybe it will go further. Who knows. We are going to study on this hypothesis in the near future because the situation is unexpected and needs to have a closer look.

As the size and structure of the global economy change, international currency use may change as well. Changes to the global economy could have major implications for the international transmission of shocks, the value of the dollar, and welfare across economies.

Reference list

1. Mayer, M The Fate of the Dollar/M/Mayer. -. New York: Truman Talley Books, 1980. - 76 p. 
2. Merriman, A. Religion and the Law in America/ A. Merriman. – New York: ABC-CLIO, 2010. -  306 p.

3. Amadeo  K  Value of the U.S. Dollar  [Electronic resource]/ K. Amadeo – Режим доступа: http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Dollar_Value.htm, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.

4.  Amadeo, K   Power of the U.S. Dollar    [Electronic resource]/K. Amadeo  – Режим доступа:  http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Dollar_Power.htm, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
5. Barrett, D. Pietre-Stones Review of Freemasonry, The "Masonic" One Dollar: Fact or Fiction [Electronic resource]/ D. Barret – Режим доступа:   http://www.aboutfreemasons.com/One_Dollar_Bill, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
6.  Conerly, B. Future Of The Dollar As World Reserve Currency  [Electronic resource]/ B. Conerly – Режим доступа:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/1786102-future-of-the-dollar-as-world-reserve-currency, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
7. Duncan, A. The Future of the Dollar [Electronic resource]// A. Duncan – Режим доступа:  http://astrology69.wordpress.com/, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
8. History of American Money [Electronic resource] – Режим доступа:     http://www.buzzle.com/articles/history-of-american-money.html, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.

9. Lewis,  N.   A Brief History of the Dollar [Electronic resource]/N. Lewis  – Режим доступа: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/a-brief-history-of-the-do_b_348253.html, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.

10. Petch, D. U.S. Dollar, Major Forex Market Forecasts for 2014 and 2015: The Market Oracle: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting [Electronic resource] /D/ Petch. – Режим доступа: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44474.html, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
11. The future of the dollar [Electronic resource] – Режим доступа:  
    http://www.rediff.com/money/2005/feb/16guest1.htm, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.
12. The Latest in U.S. Currency Design [Electronic resource] – Режим доступа:  http://www.newmoney.gov/newmoney/files/100_Materials/100_MultinoteBooklet_en_PF_031210.pdf, свободный. – Загл. с экрана.

Appendix 2.  Symbols 

Appendix 4.Questionnaire.

Questions and variants of answers.

1. Do you know what a dollar is?

• Yes
• No

2. Did you buy or sell U.S. dollars?

• Yes
• No

3. Do you keep your savings in foreign currency?

• Yes
• No
• Refrain

4. Will the U.S. dollar fall in 2014?

• Yes
• No
• Refrain

5. Does the world need the global currency?

• Yes
• No

Appendix 5.Results of the questionnaire.

Appendix 6 Economists

 GEORGE SOROS has been a prominent international supporter of democratic ideals and causes for more than 30 years.  His philanthropic organization, the Open Society Foundations, supports democracy and human rights in over 70 countries. Born in Budapest in 1930, George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management LLC. As one of history’s most successful financiers, his views on investing and economic issues are widely followed. This site is the official resource for information about George Soros.

NOURIEL ROUBINI (born March 29, 1958) is an American economist. He anticipated the collapse of the United States housing marketand the worldwide recession which started in 2008. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm.

The child of Iranian Jews, he was born in Turkey and grew up in Italy. After receiving a BA in political economics at Bocconi University,Milan and a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he became an academic at Yale and a practising economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early research focused onemerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who in 2009 became Treasury Secretary.

 MARC FABER (born February 28, 1946) is a Swiss investor. Faber is publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. Faber also serves as director, advisor and shareholder of a number of investment funds that focus on emerging and frontier markets, including Leopard Capital’s Leopard Cambodia Fund and Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.'s AFC Asia Frontier Fund.

Faber has a reputation for being a contrarian investor and has been called "Doctor Doom" for a number of years. He was the subject of a book written by Nury Vittachi in 1998 entitled Doctor Doom - Riding the Millennial Storm - Marc Faber's Path to Profit in the Financial Crisis. Faber has become a frequent speaker in various forums and makes numerous appearances on television around the world including various CNBC and Bloombergoutlets, as well as on internet venues like Jim Puplava's internet radio show.